Predictability and strategic goals in product
It would be great if we could accurately predict the future, but since we can't, we need to be flexible about how we get there and where we're going, lest we miss better opportunities along the way.
It's hard to predict the future with great accuracy. In hindsight, today's election results may seem obvious, or it might come as a surprise. And if the possibilities go beyond a coin toss between two possible outcomes, you probably have a spotty record of correctly predicting the future. Unless, of course, you're a writer for the Simpsons.
To some, the Simpsons writers have a supernatural ability to predict the future. Well, if you make enough proclamations about the future, some will be true. Especially if you're not specific about dates or timelines and when you predict many possible outcomes.
Many people smarter than me have ideas about what the future might hold. Many analysts tried hard to predict the outcome of yesterday's US election, and they had a 50% chance of getting it right. Still, no one can know with certainty what's going to happen. We make the best estimate we can with the data we have, and as that data changes, we have to re-evaluate.
So, during company planning cycles, when your executives exult that we're going to conquer the market three years from now, you might hear that it's not so much about predicting the future as it is about making the future what you want it to be. If you create a vision of where you want to be, you'll attract the thing your teams are collectively obsessing over.… right?
Well, that could be considered the law of attraction, and that's been disproven by science. Confirmation bias, however, is a very real thing. When given a strategic goal, teams will prioritize and make decisions they think will lead to success. That sounds good, but without clear guardrails, it could be a bad thing. Everyone's idea of what leads to success is likely different, and this success may be achieved in an unsustainable way.
In this case, part of the challenge is that 'conquering the market' is too vague and doesn't leave room to respond to what's actually happening during implementation. More precise strategic goals help but aren't necessarily the answer either.
The economist delivered a report in 2017 (see page 7 summary) highlighting that 90% of respondents from companies with annual revenues of 1 billion or more cited they failed to reach their strategic goals due to poor implementation or delivery. Interestingly, the other 10% who consistently achieved their strategic goals said failures in execution were not a blocker over the past 3 years.
Whatever you call it, execution, implementation, or delivery, these are essential skills for any organization to have dialled in. However, we can learn from this study that responsiveness and flexibility are equally if not more important.
Your company's strategic goals for your product are a possible future, not a guarantee. The goal itself may need to be adjusted, the organization may need to be restructured, and other priorities may need to be dropped. A strategy should be fluid, not just a yearly executive planning activity. Re-affirming where the goalpost is won't get you there if you are blocked by immovable obstacles. You need to redefine the goal.
Success requires a lot of experimentation, along with a lot of luck and preparedness. If your team can't get releases out, no one can agree on the roadmap, and production is a dumpster fire of errors, your strategy probably needs to focus on fixing that first.
Where is the bottleneck in your strategy? Are market factors causing turbulence and preventing you from reaching your goals? The best delivery pipeline in the world and a focus on optimizing your SEO won't be the thing that helps you achieve liftoff velocity.
Sticking with that analogy, a jetliner might need to reach 170mph to take off, a light and nimble aircraft more like 62mph, and an unladen swallow 24mph (in optimal conditions). Can you guess how much speed it takes for a Tesla roadster to achieve flight? 24,606mph, achievable thanks to a 'Falcon-Heavy' rocket producing more than 5 million pounds of thrust. The equivalent power of eighteen 747s.
The first three scenarios represent going with the flow and operating within normal parameters. The last scenario illustrates what it looks like when fighting against gravity, requiring a unique approach with a lot of risk.
Is your strategy and, by extension, your strategic goals taking into account the realities that face your business and your teams?